Race 1: Maiden 1400
Very weak – grooms race – Race Time Analysis
Race 2: Maiden 1400m
#6 IDEAL FUTURE (18-10) sets the form standard, but that’s a very weak standard and this race really shouldn’t be difficult for the well bred first-timer #10 MORAINE (12-10) to win. A 500k National Sales purchase, race time support will show the strength of the stables perception of her ability. The winner should be one of these two, but the #10 really should win if she has any real ability.
Race 3: Graduation 1400m
#1 ALABAMA ANNA (2-1) has the best form on offer. She tries a step up to 1400m today having only sprinted to date and her breeding suggests she should relish it (and even further in time). She finished 2,25L ahead of #6 IMBEWU (3-1) in her last run and is only 1kg worse off at the weights on that run. With the step up in trip expected to suit I am with her to maintain that gap. She has good natural pace and that is a good trait to have with the going on top and quick at this time of year. #6 IMBEWU is certainly a big runner, but she has disappointed after winning on debut. #3 CRIMSON PRINCESS (33-10) has her first run in Gauteng having relocated from Cape Town. She’s held her form well, but she’s a few lengths inferior to #1 in tems of ability and she would prefer 1600m although the straight 1400m might suit. #2 SPECIAL VARIETY (5-1) has a tough task with joint top weight. #1 should win.
Race 4: Progress Plate 1800m
A boat race between #1 FLYING CARPET (12-10) and #4 SOVEREIGN SPIRIT (18-10). Although I think one of them will win I don’t have a preference.
Race 5: 86 Handicap 2000m
With a good pace assured here, this race could set up for a ‘closer’ despite the quick winter going. #10 TINDER DRY (10-1) jumps slowly out the gates in her races, but with this looking the ideal trip and with the pace on, she may be able to take advantage of carrying 50,5kgs and mow them down close to home. Her stable has been amongst the winners and she could upset. She gets blinkers for the first time today in attempt to get her into the race earlier. #9 ONTHEVERGE (12-1) is another outsider who could upset with a low weight.
Race 6: 78 Handicap 2000m
#1 JAIMALA (8-1) will relish this step back up in trip having has a pipe opener over 1450m in his first run in Gauteng after gelding. He’s competitive off this mark and if the gelding has brought just a little bit of improvement he could take this. There are plenty with a chance though.
Race 7: 72 Handicap 1000m
#5 LOVE BITE (4-1) won extremely easily when I tipped her last week at 10-1. She travelled extremely well just behind the pace over this CD before quickening away from the opposition when asked. Her time was quick for this class too, so although she picked up a 6 pound penalty for that win, I don’t think it will be enough for those who finished behind her to reverse the form. Her stable is in form too. The pace is likely to be set by the Fav #1 QUEEN OF GAUL (22-10) and with #5 LOVE BITE drawn right next to her that should provide the target for #5 to chase down. #1 QUEEN OF GAUL clearly has decent ability, but she does carry a big weight for a 2yr old and I will be trying to beat her as the favourite.
Race 8: 72 Handicap 1200m
A very tight handicap where I don’t fancy anything.
Race 9: 76 Handicap 1500m
#1 WAQAAS (28-10) goes well over this CD, but although he will go well he looks handicapped to the hilt and his 2 point penalty for his last 2nd won’t help his chances, so I’ll try and beat him as the Fav. This race has cut up to just 8 runners with all the scratchings, so although he’s a moderate sort who took 12 runs to win his maiden #9 ORGETRIX (15-2) may just be able to follow up on his maiden win now entering the handicaps. The step up to 1400m suited him last time and the 1,5kg claim his capable appie brings should make him a runner.