Race 1: Juvenile Plate 1400m
No obvious pace maker. An intriguing race.
#2 QUANTUM THEORY (11-10) is highly regared by his stable and it was a gutsy display he put up to win his 2nd start over this CD in race 6 on 12 June. His winning time was 0,22 seconds quicker than that of #7 INTOXICATING (28-10) who’d finished 2nd in her race in race 5 on the same day, but the weight he carries today is a nett +3,5 kgs relative to her so this puts them very close together in terms of winning this race. #7 INTOXICATING was reportedly not striding out in that start, so if she does stride properly today she may just have his measure receiving 6 kgs from him. #1 ACORN (22-10) has made a promising start to his career. He won from a wide draw on the Inside track at this course and that’s not an easy task over that CD. He’s run on strongly in both his starts after being outpaced, so I presume his stable thinks he wants this step up in trip, but his breeding suggests that there may be question marks about him going this far and I therefore would be looking to oppose him. I can’t see #’s 3 or 4 being good enough to win this.
Not easy to separate the two at the top of the market, but the 6 kgs #2 has to give #7 may just tip it in the filly’s favour and she’s a marginal first choice.
Race 2: Juvenile Plate 1400m
#3 NONE OTHER (8-10) relished this trip last time over CD and she’s clearly the one to beat. The pace will probably be set by #’s 1 or 7 here and from her 3 draw she should be able to track that pace early and then pull away late from this field. Intoxicating in Race 1 ran just in front of her last time, so see how that form holds up. I expect her to win. #1 BARMAID (5-2) won comfortably on debut, but that was a very weak field she beat and she’s going to find #3 tough to beat. I can’t see anything else bar 3 or 1 winning this and I make #3 hard to beat.
#3 is TODAY’S BEST BET
Race 3: Maiden 1160m
#8 LOVE ME AGAIN (15-10) put up a promising debut after finding outside support. He ran on strongly late after getting outpaced in the middle stages of the race. That was a very weak field though and he did have the best draw over a CD where the low draws are a big advantage. I’m certainly not saying he can’t win here, but at 15-10 I’d much rather be against him. #5 BURGESS (33-10) was just ahead of Spielberg (who won comfortably on Thursday) when 2nd over CD last time. Although well beaten in his races before that, he did run in strong races and at 33-10 he’s my first choice. #9 OATHKEEPER (14-1) was very disappointing last time when I thought he’d found the right race to break his maiden. He sweated up badly before the race and he looks a difficult ride, so despite his breeding suggesting he wants a lot more ground than this, his stable have dropped him back in trip and fitted him with blinkers. He’s getting an apprentice claim too and shows natural pace in his races, so it appears that the tactics will be to just let him stride out the gates and see if he can keep rolling. #’s 6,7 and 10 are the first-timers who could be competitive here and this isn’t the strongest race in the world so a first-timer could definitely win this.
I’M AGAINST #8 LOVE ME AGAIN at 15-10.
Race 4: Maiden 1160m
A thin race.
#2 ARILENA (8-10) found support on debut and she was only run out of it close to home over this CD. She showed good pace out the gates and throughout the race and with similar tactics today she should be hard to reel in on a track that’s running very quick now. It is a concern that she was scratching (coughing) recently, but she is the one to beat. #8 MADAME VICKI (22-10) disappointed after being heavily supported on her debut. That formline is working out well, but she was always outpaced and unless she’s ‘woken up’ dramatically from that debut experience she could find herself too far back on a quick track to chase the Fav down. She’s a big runner in this field, but I definitely prefer #2. I don’t fancy anything else.
Race 5: Classified Stakes 1100m
#5 INTEGRATE (9-2) has had bad luck in running in two of his last three starts. He travels well in his races, but he does lack early pace and I do have concerns that this 14 horse field may cause traffic problems for him again when he tries to make his run, but he is my first choice again after I tipped him last time. #6 WRITTEN IN STONE (4-1) finished just ahead of my selection in his last start, but I think with a better path through #5 will reverse that form. There are many with a chance if you get past these two.
Race 6: 96 Handicap 1000m
Any of the runners (bar 3) could win this and I don’t have a selection.
Race 7: 72 Handicap 1600m
Another wide open race and I don’t fancy anything.
Race 8: 95 Handicap 1400m
#2 ANNE BOLEYN (7-2) gets the 1 draw which is a big advantage over this CD. She ran well from a very bad draw on the Inside track last time. The stable/rider combination keep banging out the winners and with her natural pace she’ll be hard to peg back on a track that’s running very quick now. She’s the one to beat. #’s 3,4,5, and 7 all have a chance if she fails.
Race 9: 77 Handicap 1400m
#4 SPECIAL VARIETY (3-1) tends to get outpaced in her races, but from a 3 draw around the bend she should be better placed today. Her best run to date was over 1400m when she had a hard task at the weights in a Graduation plate, so this trip holds no fears. She’s the one to beat. #1 EMERALD PRINCESS (18-10) is on the up and she could still be underrated. I liked her strongly when she won last time and I expect a big run from her again today. I expect the winner to come from one of these two.
One thought on “TURFFONTEIN STANDSIDE – 09/07/2022”
Very insightful and so well written. Will definitely follow.