An uninspiring card and I’ll only be playing to small stakes.
|False Rail||14m in from 1600m with a 14m spur at 600m|
The rail configuration could have a material outcome to races up the straight and I’ll assess the effects at race time.
Race 1: Work Riders Maiden 1700m
Race 2: Maiden 1200m
#5 BACK TO THE FUTURE (28-10) had some subsequent winners with fair ability just in front of her on debut. Rested for 3 months, she has scope to improve signicantly and this is a very winnable race so she’s a weak first choice. #3 SECOND BREATH (15-10) has already had 7 runs, so although she’s the highest rated runner here she isn’t improving and I prefer #5 to improve past her. She has produced her best runs over 1000m anyway, so I’m not even convinced that the 1200m suits.
#6 NAMAQUA BLOSSOM (13-10) is bred for much further, but she’s found early support into Fav and she could easily be too good for this weak bunch. The stable is very capable of setting them up on debut, so she needs to be watched for race time support.
SELECTION: I prefer 5 to 3, but 6 could easily be good enough on debut depite needing more ground in time.
Race 3: Maiden 1200m
Another weak field.
#2 FUTUREWOLF (2-1) is the obvious form selection based on his last run, but it should be noted that it was in a Qualified Maiden. He has every right to win this, but there are some well bred first-timers here and one has to believe that at least one of them has to be too good for these moderate raced runners. #3 LORD TENNYSON (7-1) is out of a sprinting dam so it’s not impossible that he does in fact want this drop back to 1200m. He did beat #2 when they met, so his chances can’t be dismissed.
#’s 8,9 and 10 are first-timers that all look like they could have enough speed to win a 1200m. Support?
SELECTION: Race time assessment
Race 4: Maiden 1700m
Very weak again.
#5 BLUE ERUPTION (7-10) is slowly progressing as she steps up in trip. She’s lacked early pace in her races to date, but she’s met stronger fields than this and from a 2 draw around the bend she may be able to sit near the front from the start and be well positioned to get clear of her weak opposition up the straight. She should prove hard to beat here.
Race 5: Novice Handicap 1600m
#1 BRENDAN JAMES (13-10) grabbed my attention when 3rd in a Graduation over this trip two runs ago. He was 6 points out at the weights with the winner and 13 with the 2nd horse, so he looks potentially well-in off a mark of 79. He also had to be steadied 200m from home as the winner came through the gap, but he re-gathered and stayed on again late. He lacked a finishing burst last time when upped in trip, but back over 1600m he should have the measure of this field off his current rating. My only negative is that after changing stables he’s been fitted with blinkers for the first time and I hate it when a runner already has the form to win, but the equipment gets changed. I’d like to see him go to start before making a final assessment on him and I wouldn’t be rushing to take 13-10 anyway.
#3 CORAPI (22-10) is a big runner off his current mark, but I do think he may be at his best over a bit shorter. #4 KENTALLEN BAY (33-10) improved nicely to win comfortably last time, but that was a weak race so it’s tough to know where he fits in here.
Update: The stable says #1 has shown improvement fitted with blinkers.
SELECTION: I expect #1 to win if he isn’t negatively affected by the blinkers. Watch him going to start to see how he goes down.
Race 6: 80 Handicap 1000m
A competitive race and I think all of 3,4,6,7 or 8 could win this. I don’t have a preference.
Race 7: Classified Stakes 1400m
I don’t like anything at this stage as I need to assess how the the rail configuration affects the runners up the straight, so I’ll watch race 2 closely before drawing conclusions. Check out the Race Time Assesment section for updates.
Race 8: Classified Stakes 1400m
I don’t like anything at this stage as I need to assess how the the rail configuration affects the runners up the straight, so I’ll watch race 2 closely before drawing conclusions.