TURFFONTEIN INSIDE – 29/09/2022

The track is quick with a pen of 20 and the ability to race close to the pace is definitely an advantage at the moment. The spur at 8,5m means the runners are likely to come up the middle/outer section of the straight, which does negate the low draw advantage a bit.

A weird card for me as although I think many of the Favs are big runners, I don’t see any as ‘bombproof’. I wouldn’t be desperately wanting to punt any of them and yet I’m not really looking to oppose most of them either.

Race 1: Maiden 1200m

#4 ASIYE PHAMBILI (11-10) showed promise on debut and looked a blinder at 1-5 last time, but somehow she conspired to get herself beaten. She was always in contention (despite taking a slight bump out the gates), but she did seem very one-paced in the finish. She has some siblings with decent ability (including a full sister who won over 1200-1300m), so I don’t want to just brass her at this stage, but I do have concerns that maybe this quick 1200m might catch her out. If you fancy her, she should drift to a more attractive price than the current 11-10.

#1 MIGHTY GODDESS (33-10) has run against some strong fields and she looks a massive runner here on the best of those runs. She has enough natural pace to go handy and that will stand her in good stead with the prevailing conditions.

#7 ROSY LEMON (6-1) ran on strongly late over this CD last time, but the fact remains that a moderate mare like Smelting was ahead of her that day, so she is going to have to improve a lot to beat #’s 1 and 4.

The booking of Khumalo on the first-timer #10 WINTER MUSE (12-1) looks significant and the stable comment is ‘include in all bets’, so she has to be respected from the best draw. #’s 3 and 5 will probably need further based on their breeding.

SELECTION: Race time assessment, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the early price on offer about the Fav as she is too short at 11-10.

RESULT: 4-10-1-8

Race 2: Maiden 1200m

#9 PRINCESS ILARIA (16-10) made a good debut over 1200m, A trip that looked likely to be too sharp based on her breeding. Stepped up to 1450m last time I expected her to win, but although she had every chance, she didn’t seem to get home late. I’m not entirely sure as to whether I think she wants this drop back to 1200m or that she was simply outprinted late and that she does in fact want to go 1600m+ as her breeding suggests. She definitely has the best form on offer though, so she is first choice, albeit with a few reservations.

#5 STROKE OF MERCY (22-10) showed pace on debut and he is entitled to improve after just one run. That wasn’t a strong race though and the 9 draw over this CD is tough to overcome, so he does looks vulnerable.

#7 WOODLAND RIDGE (9-2) is very moderate and I don’t fancy him.

#8 FLY ISABELLA FLY (12-1) is the biggest price of the Van Vuuren runners, but she has a sprinters pedigree and she could in fact be the best of those from that stable.

SELECTION: 9, but not a confident selection. Support for 8?

RESULT: 6-8-5-1

Race 3: Maiden 1700m

#3 BATTLEGROUND (1-1) has run to a similar level of form in both his starts and that makes him very competitive in this field. He showed pace in his 2nd start and from the 1 draw he should be in contention thoughout, so he’s a big runner here. There’s absolutely no value in his price at 1-1 though as he’s certainly no past-the-poster, so he’s another I wouldn’t be rushing to back early. He does look to hold #6 KING OF ROME (6-1).

#8 SKYJET (33-10) has been a big price in both his starts. Slow out the gates on each occasion, he started to stay on nicely late in his 2nd start and that run stands up well to this fields form. His stable love a punt and if he finds strong support after a short rest I would certainly take heed, this is not a strong race. He looks like a more galloping course would suit him more, but he would be a big runner anyway if he looks fancied.

#4 COMMANDING POWER (14-1) has siblings with decent ability, but it is a concern that he debuts with blinkers on, it’s usually not a good sign.

#2 SAFRICAN TORRENT (9-2) ran in a weak race last time, looks moderate and I’M AGAINST HIM.

SELECTION: 3 with big respect for 8 if he finds race time support.

RESULT: 2-3-6-7

Race 4: Maiden 1700m

The weakest of the 4 maiden races on the card and I don’t have conviction in any of them.

#6 PACIFIC EXPRESS (11-10) has relocated from Cape Town and she is the form runner here, but she’s another who’s early markup is far too short. Khumalo has a 26% strike rate with this stable, so she must be expected to run well despite the short rest. An obvious winning chance, but too short in the early market.

#8 ROWINS DREAM (14-1) will both enjoy this step up in trip and I expect improvement from her.

SELECTION: Nil

RESULT: 6-1-4-8

Race 5: Graduation 1000m

The difficulty here is that #’s 2,4 and 7 have all been below their best in recent starts, so can one have confidence in taking on the short-priced #3 FAR AWAY WINTER (11-10)?

I DON’T KNOW WHAT TO DO HERE!

SELECTION: I’d like to beat #3, but I’m not confident that he can be with the others having been below their best recently.

RESULT: 3-4-2-1

Race 6: 80 Handicap 1500m

#4 CASTLE CORNER (5-1) was my selection when he won last time and I think he can follow up. The quick track conditions really aren’t ideal for him because he’s invariably slow out the gates and he gets left with a lot of ground to make up. However, the reason I liked him last time and the reason I’m tipping him again is that a low draw allows him to sit much closer to the pace early in his races than is the case when he draws wide. He has a great turn-of-foot and if he can sit only 4L behind turning for home the opposition may battle to stave him off. He’s never won on this track, so he’s not a confident selection, but he could go back to back.

#11 PROSPER’S GIFT (5-1) is 5 points under sufferance, but he’s the only 3 yr old in the lineup and they continue to feature well in these races at the moment. He’s improved since gelding, so from a 2 draw I respect his chances despite the weight disadvantage.

#2 WHISPERS OF WAR (22-10) was heavily supported when just failing last week. He drops in class so has to be respected.

SELECTION: 4-11-2

RESULT: 1-2-3-4

Race 7: 90 Handicap 2000m

A tight handicap and I don’t fancy anything.

Race 8: 71 Handicap 2000m

#’s 1 and 3 are holding their form and are obviously big runners here, but neither is improving now and I’m going for #2 SUN BIRD (7-1) to improve stepped up in trip. Out of a Silvano mare who won up to 2000m, she has a half-bro who has also won up to this trip and I think she could find improvement in this E Division trying the trip for the first time. Her stable is in good form.

#4 RARATONGA ROSE (4-1) beat a very weak field last time and that formline isn’t working out either, so even though she’s the only 3 yr old in the race I’M AGAINST HER.

SELECTION: 2

RESULT: 4-3-1-9