KENILWORTH WINTER – 08/06/22
Race 1: Maiden Juvenile 1000m
This is a competitive race.
#7 RED IMPACT (9-10) made a promising debut over course and distance (CD) and he clearly has scope for further improvement after just one run. His price is very short at 9-10 when one works through the form though as there at least 3 other raced runners who are competitive and then there are a few first-timers too. He can win for sure, but too short in the market. #1 BEERENBERG (7-1) has been gelded since his last run. He had #2 CHARLIE CROCKER (4-1) behind him by 2,45L that day, and #2 is closely matched with #7 on their last run, so #1 looks some value here at 7-1 if fit and well. #6 NOT IN DOUBT (5-1) has beaten #2 before too, so clearly he’s a runner too. #5 ICONIC DESTINATION cost R700k at the National Sales, so whilst he will want further than this 1000m he is very much respected from a stable that is capable of bringing them out to win first time up. All in this race is competitive and whilst the favourite #7 RED IMPACT has every right to win he is too short currently at 9-10.
Race 2: Maiden Juvenile 1400
The market fascinates me here as on form #7 PAS DE NOM (9-2) should in fact be favourite. He’s had both LORD WILLIAM & PORT LOUIS behind him and those are the horses that have beaten the favourite #10 ROYAL AUSSIE (11-10). #7 PAS DE NOM should relish this step up in trip too being out of a Dynasty mare. He has to be a bet at this price. #10 ROYAL AUSSIE is obviously a big runner and he should go very close to winning, but he has a tricky draw and he’s too short in the market relative to #7 PAS DE NOM. #2 CONTIGUOUS (11-2) and #11 TEATRO (8-1) are right next to each other on their last run and look the most likely to fill the other placings.
Race 3: Maiden Juvenile 1400m
#3 ECHO OF LIFE (33-10) has disappointed the stable to date. She apparently works better than any of the other juvenile fillies in this powerful yard, but she hasn’t brought that work to the turf yet. She was caught 3 wide the whole way around the bend last time though, so maybe that run can be excused and she should go close here. #7 LOVE IS A ROSE (7-1) was a long way off the early pace on debut before staying on really strongly late before finding interference in the latter stages. I thought she should have won that day and that form is strong in the context of this race. She was never in the race last time, but the trainer reported her having a nasal discharge and maybe that run can be excused. From a 1 draw she might be able to sit a bit closer to the pace this time and the extra will suit her. #10 TIPSY TARRGON (28-10 favourite) stayed on late on debut after getting outpaced in the middle part of the race. She will relish this step up in trip, but she has the worst of the draw and could get caught too far out of her ground turning for home on the short run in of 470m. #8 LUCY IN PINK (7-2) is a limited type, so whilst I don’t discount her chances totally I’d be looking elsewhere for the winner. #5 GODDEX ALPHAEA (6-1) isn’t chanceless, but also has a tricky draw.
Race 4: Maiden Plate 1200m
The older fillies look limited and the 2 yr olds are starting to win a lot of maiden race against their elders now. #10 FUN ZONE (15-10) is an improving 2 yr old who has run two smart races in a row now. The horse that beat her last time ran 2nd over CD in a Listed race on Saturday to frank the form of the run too. She should prove hard to beat here dspite her jockey carrying 0,5kgs overweight. #14 RAFEEF’S CHOICE (11-2) is out of a sprinting dam with ability. Being by Rafeef she should have natural speed and her stable is very capable of winning with first-timers, so she’s very much respected. #12 LADY CIMBA (12-1) is going to prefer more ground, but she ran well over CD on debut in a race that has worked out well. She’s unlikely to beat #10, but she could fill a minor placing.
Race 5: Classified Stakes 1200m
#5 ON THE ROAD AGAIN (22-10) showed promise as a juvenile this time last year before losing his form. Gelded in January, he is starting to show improved form again now that his rating has come down from an 88 to a 74. He started staying on late after finding some interference in the running last time and he looks to have the measure of #8 RAGNOR LOTHBROK (9-2) even though he’s 0,5kgs worse off today on that last run. #3 MISS GREENLIGHT (15-4) is holding her form well and looks a big runner here. #1 LOVE ON TIME (15-2) and #4 ALL LIT UP (10-1) are others with a chance here.
Race 6: Classified Stakes 1600m
There’s very little separating #’s 1,2,3,5 and 6 on form.
Race 7: Allowance 1100m
#8 PACIFIC GREEN (5-1) disappointed in his 2nd start after delivering when supported on debut. The 2yr olds are doing well against their elders and she could bounce back well here against these handicapping types. It’s an open race if she doesn’t deliver.
Race 8: Maiden 1200m
#10 ITSRAININGWILLIAM (15-10) looks hard to beat here. He’s been gelded since his last run and that probably has something to do that he’s been hanging in his races. He’s raced against stronger than these in all three runs. It’s factored into his price at 15-10, but again I like that he’s a 2yr old taking on generally older horses and he should proce HTB (hard to beat). He had Le Mans 1,5L behind him in his 2nd run and that is the horse that comfortably beat the other 2 yr old here #12 RULE OF THUMB on his debut. On that #12 shopuld battle to beat #10. There are quite a few that can be given a chance if #10 fails to deliver, but for me he’ll win.